Updated on August 20, 2024
Ukrainian forces have reportedly seized control of 92 settlements and over 1,250 square kilometers in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, according to President Volodymyr Zelensky. This development marks a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia, with Kyiv's military operation in the region continuing for more than two weeks.
During a meeting in Dnipro on August 19, Zelensky provided updates on the operation, highlighting the capture of the town of Sudzha in Kursk Oblast. The Ukrainian forces have allegedly destroyed all three bridges over the Seim River, further complicating Russia’s efforts to supply its troops in the area. Although we can't verify Zelensky’s claims regarding the extent of the seized territory, the implications of this operation are profound.
The Ukrainian Air Force, while declining to comment on specific reports, previously acknowledged the destruction of two bridges in Kursk Oblast. These bridges, located near the village of Zvannoye and the town of Glushkovo, were critical for Russian military logistics. On August 19, a Russian Investigative Committee official confirmed that Ukrainian forces had targeted the third bridge over the Seim River, which, if true, would be a significant blow to Russian military supply lines in the Glushkovsky district near the Ukrainian border.
Zelensky emphasized that the operation is not just a territorial advance but also a strategic effort to weaken Russian military capabilities and secure the release of Ukrainian prisoners of war. He described the operation as "our largest investment in the process of releasing Ukrainians from Russian captivity," revealing that Ukrainian forces have captured what he referred to as the largest number of Russian prisoners in a single operation. While he did not provide specific numbers, Zelensky mentioned that "hundreds" of Russian soldiers had been captured by August 13.
However, the exact number of Russian captives remains undisclosed. A Ukrainian colonel, suggested that the number could be as high as 2,000, although this figure has not been officially confirmed.
As the incursion into Kursk Oblast continues, the broader implications for the conflict between Ukraine and Russia remain to be seen. The situation on the ground is fluid, with both sides maintaining strategic ambiguity and withholding full details of their operations. The Ukrainian government’s focus on destabilizing Russian military logistics while securing prisoner exchanges highlights the multifaceted nature of this latest phase in the conflict.
The international community is closely monitoring the developments in Kursk Oblast, as the ongoing Ukrainian operation could have significant ramifications for the broader geopolitical landscape. With Ukrainian forces seemingly making substantial gains, the response from Russia, both militarily and diplomatically, will be crucial in determining the next steps in this protracted conflict.
For nearly ten days, Ukrainian Armed Forces have been conducting a military operation in Russia's Kursk region. The operation, which consists of multiple phases, began with a preparation stage that involved the redeployment of Ukrainian troops to the Sumy region, the determination of attack directions based on the evolving operational situation, and efforts to mislead Russian forces.
In recent weeks, Russian reconnaissance drones have been flying deep into Ukrainian territory, guiding "Iskander" missile strikes. This activity likely indicated that Russian military intelligence had detected the buildup of Ukrainian forces near the border. According to Bloomberg, citing sources, Russian intelligence had informed Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov of the Ukrainian troop concentration two weeks before the invasion, yet no countermeasures were taken.
To divert attention, disinformation about a potential attack in the Sumy region had been circulating since late spring, and Ukraine was preparing to repel such an attack. Interestingly, this aspect of the Ukrainian operation was inadvertently aided by Chechen forces. On June 9, Chechen fighters entered the border village of Ryzhivka in the Sumy region, filmed themselves allegedly liberating it, and proudly shared the footage on Chechen's leader Ramzan Kadyrov’s Telegram channel. This may have led Putin to underestimate the threat posed by the Ukrainian troop buildup in the Sumy region. In hindsight, Kadyrov perhaps deserves recognition for unwittingly assisting the preparation for the Ukrainian operation in Kursk.
The second phase of the operation involved the invasion itself and a breakthrough. Leveraging the element of surprise, Ukrainian forces crossed the Russian border with relative ease and quickly advanced into the Kursk region. This was facilitated by the fact that the border was guarded only by FSB border troops and conscripts, with no operational reserves available for rapid deployment to threatened areas. All available Russian forces were already committed to the front lines.
This situation is reminiscent of the events of June 23-24 last year, when Russia struggled to muster a single tank to stop the advancing Wagner Group column. The only resource that could be quickly deployed was aviation, which was used to counter the heavy Wagner formation and has now been employed to counter the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk. However, air power alone cannot stop a breakthrough; at best, it can slow it down, while the redeployment of armored units from other front-line sectors takes time. As a result, Ukrainian forces managed to advance deeper into Russian territory during this operation than Russian forces did during their May offensive in the Kharkiv region.
The Kursk operation is currently in its second phase, focusing on the breakthrough and invasion, or what could be described as a rapid advance. The completion of this phase provides insight into the potential extent of Ukrainian rear positions on Russian soil.
The invasion and breakthrough phase has now concluded, and the Kursk operation has entered the phase of exploiting success. This means that the element of surprise is gone, and rapid advances towards cities like Rylsk, Lgov, or the Kursk nuclear power plant are unlikely. As I have said from the outset, nuclear power plants are not under threat, except perhaps from drone attacks.
What exactly is this phase of exploiting success? How do the Ukrainians intend to develop their success if no further rapid advances are expected? Exploiting success refers to a type of offensive operation aimed at disrupting the enemy deep within their defensive lines. Such attacks rarely result in the destruction of defending forces; instead, they often force them to retreat and reestablish their defensive lines as quickly as possible.
Currently, Russian forces are attempting to concentrate their firepower against the Ukrainian operation in the Kursk region by shifting forces from less active front-line sectors. The Ukrainian military’s goal during this phase is to launch simultaneous attacks across the entire operational zone to disrupt Russian efforts and prevent them from massing their forces. This is why we are seeing reports like, "They are attacking Korenevo, they are about to capture it, send reinforcements urgently!" or "Wait, they are attacking Romny Baky, shift forces there immediately!" or "Hold on, they are breaking through towards the Belovsky district, spotted near the village of Giryi!" or "No, here’s a report of a border crossing in the Krasnoyarsky district of the Belgorod region, and there are reports of fighting near the village of Bezymeno, which leads straight to Grayvoron." So where should reinforcements be urgently deployed? Where is the fire to be extinguished? Where should forces be concentrated? Which sector should be the main focus?
This is the disorganization of the enemy’s defenses in action. The goal of these attacks is not to capture a town like Grayvoron or a district center in the Belgorod region but to consolidate gains made during the previous phase. While Gerasimov struggles to manage the chaos, Ukrainian forces will be able to dig in, fortify positions, mine roads, and prepare for defense.
During the exploitation phase, the area under Ukrainian control may expand slightly, but not significantly. Overall, the current combat zone covers about 1,000 square kilometers. It is important to emphasize that this is the combat zone, not the control zone, as stated by the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Syrskyi and President Zelensky.
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Ukrainian Defense Forces destroyed a Russian convoy on the way to help their own.
The Russian Ministry of Defense has now officially recognized the Kursk Region as an active combat zone, integrating it into its daily reports. This acknowledgment places Kursk alongside Vovchansk and Lyptsi, emphasizing the efforts to counter Ukrainian advancements and prevent further incursions. Recent updates have highlighted a significant redeployment of Russian troops and resources from Belgorod and Donetsk, including units from Group North and the “Brigade of 15 Volunteers,” which formed during the Donbas conflict.
These areas have been the focus of Russian offensives for months, but the current troop movements indicate that maintaining these advances is becoming increasingly difficult. Reports from TASS suggest that Russian convoys are now heading towards Sudzha. Meanwhile, pro-war bloggers have noted a buildup of Ukrainian reinforcements, potentially numbering in the thousands, in the Sumy Region near the border. They speculate that Ukraine may shift its focus to less defended areas northwest of Sudzha, rather than targeting the same locations like Sudzha and Korenevo.
This new potential target could be even more vulnerable. In the past few days, Ukrainian forces have received reinforcements, and the TikTok-famous Akhmat unit appears to have withdrawn to avoid direct clashes. There are also signs that the Ukrainian army is fortifying its positions, constructing trenches, dugouts, and other defenses, which could make it harder for Russian forces to dislodge them from Russian territory.
Reclaiming the borders presents a substantial challenge for the Russian military. Recent clashes occurred near Martynovka (close to Sudzha) and Korenevo, with reports indicating that Ukrainian mobile units have advanced further into Russian territory near Malaya Loknya, Olgovka, and Ivashkovsky. Additionally, there are claims that Ukrainian forces have shot down another Kamov Ka-52 helicopter in the Kursk Region. Amid these developments, some Russians are calling for the imposition of martial law in Kursk, hoping it will lead to evacuations.
However, martial law would primarily serve to restrict civil liberties, allowing the government to ban protests, conduct arbitrary searches, impose wartime censorship, and seize property—measures that are not unfamiliar in the current Russian context. Sources within the Kursk regional administration have reportedly expressed concerns about causing unnecessary panic, arguing that martial law might not be effective in repelling Ukrainian forces but could instead disrupt local communities. Nevertheless, the authorities have already initiated a federal emergency response in Kursk, along with counter-terror operations in Kursk, Bryansk, and Belgorod.
These counter-terror measures grant regional authorities extensive powers, including the ability to monitor communications, disable networks, enter homes, and requisition vehicles for operational purposes. Local residents have voiced frustration over the lack of evacuation plans. Initially, authorities downplayed the severity of the Ukrainian raid, describing it as a minor saboteur operation. Now, as the situation escalates, many residents feel trapped, wishing they had been informed earlier.
In Lgov, about 30 miles from Sudzha, an official claimed that evacuation was unnecessary, though some efforts have since been made in specific districts. The situation has deteriorated to the point where local courthouses have been closed.
Amid all this, uncertainty prevails. It's unclear whether the Ukrainian army will continue its incursion or if they will be repelled, allowing residents to return home. The ability of local authorities to resume normal operations remains uncertain.
Further updates will follow as the situation develops.
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Hostilities in the Kursk region of Russia continue, drastically altering our perception of the war. What appeared as a simple raid has evolved into a large-scale military operation. This could potentially mark Ukraine’s strategic offensive, reshaping the war’s landscape.
Yesterday clarified one thing: we’re witnessing the largest military operation on Russian territory since the Chechen Wars. Contrary to Russian propaganda labeling it a provocation, this is a legitimate military campaign. The AFU's motives remain unclear, but they are advancing on Russian territory, capturing settlements and key infrastructure. Ukrainian forces seized a crucial gas station supplying Russian natural gas to Europe. What began with a few border guards taken prisoner has escalated to over fifty.
The Russian military’s response involved artillery, air force, and tactical missiles, creating chaos on its own soil. This is not a mere border skirmish but a war, and the Ukrainians are determined. They may aim to open a new front on Russian territory to divert Russian troops. Whether they succeed is uncertain, but the new front is real, supported by Ukrainian air defense.
This operation was meticulously planned, catching the Russians off guard. Entire units of Russian soldiers were captured, illustrating the intelligence failure. The POWs, unlike previous ones, were captured without resistance, highlighting the Russian army's unpreparedness. They seemed unaware of the imminent threat, showcasing a significant intelligence oversight.
Russia waged the largest war in Europe in 80 years against Ukraine, yet failed to fortify its border, leaving it guarded by unprepared conscripts. Russian intelligence overlooked troop concentrations and attack preparations. This wasn’t a minor raid but a full-scale invasion they missed, despite being engaged in a full-scale war.
This war is far from a local conflict; it's akin to World War I. Russia's border with Ukraine is now a front line. Russian authorities, however, treat it as just another state border, guarded inadequately. They live in a world where the border is untouchable simply because it’s Russian, failing to realize the reality of war.
The Russian Volunteer Corps, fighting for Ukraine, highlights the Russian government's neglect of its border protection. The first raids occurred 16 months ago, yet the military hasn’t fortified vulnerable sections. They waste resources on minor gains while the rear remains exposed. The Kursk region is vulnerable, a fact Ukrainian commanders have exploited.
The Russian government’s actions reveal their incompetence. They invaded Ukraine, expecting easy victories, but met with resistance and failure. Now, they escalate the war without clear goals, driven by delusion. War isn’t a controlled process; it evolves, grows, and causes destruction uncontrollably.
Putin’s delusions of controlling the war are evident. He pushes and pulls, expecting the war to follow his whims. Yet, he’s shocked by the inevitable consequences, showing a fundamental misunderstanding of war’s nature. This ignorance is reminiscent of flat-earthers’ denial of reality.
Putin’s actions resemble a gambling addict, risking everything in hopes of winning back losses. His belief in luck drives reckless decisions, endangering millions. The grim reality is that no loss will deter him from further escalation.
Hostilities in the Kursk region underscore the war's dynamic nature and Russia’s strategic failures. The Ukrainian offensive challenges the Russian military, revealing incompetence and delusion at the highest levels. The war continues to evolve unpredictably, driven by the actions of leaders detached from its brutal realities.
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